pro libertate net

Unknown Quantity was part of my last year’s advent calender. A surprise since it was not on my wish list. Yet, it could have been on the list as I am – at least once in while – interested in math, or the history of math.

Unknown Quantity traces the history of algebra from its roots to mondern times. While it seems quite comprehensive concerning the earlier phases of discoveries it becomes rather patchy in describing the development during the, say, last hundred years. Of course, a lot was happening during these years and most can only be understood with a proper degree in mathematics. A fact that led the author John Derbyshire (apparently quite a character) to add some more technical notes (on the easier topics) to the historic accounts and biographical notes.

The book is rather interesting and informative; though certainly it is not the authoritative source on the history of math, or even just algebra.

I think I have not noticed this before but with Shock Wave it became rather clear. One of Cussler’s strengths is setting up the historical backdrop of his novels. Once in a while, I would really like to read only these parts if they came as a full fledged novel on their own.

Or do I become a little tired of Dirk Pitt? Always the hero, indestructible and with his luck never running out. Maybe Cussler felt the same. Two years after Shock Wave he published the first NUMA Files novel that features a different protagonist while still taking place in the same timeline and universe he created with Pitt. Actually, these novels got me started with reading Cussler.

That being said, Shock Wave was fast paced and exhilarating as ever. A new evil (economic) super power is introduced, almost Bond-like I dare say. I wonder whether they will re-appear in the next novels as a more active ingredient to mix of adventure, science, global politics, and secret agents.

Not only out of professional necessity but also to satisfy my personal intellectual curiosity I follow the ongoing discussion on the visual display of quantitative information. Cleveland and Tufte are certainly the authors who influenced me the most when it comes to design a data display. So, of course, I ordered and read Howard Wainer’s Picturing the Uncertain World.

It is not quite what I expected. Though the consequences of uncertainty and the dangers of neglecting uncertainty are discussed, the book is not really focused on how to provide visual displays that capture and communicate the uncertainty in the data. Just one out of 21 chapter is explicitly addressing this topic. The other 20 chapters provide a wonderful narrative on the development of effective data displays and possible pitfalls. And this narrative is what makes the book worthwhile. Wainer provides an almost complete genesis of several (historical) examples of effective data displays. These little stories are both informative and entertaining. Consequently the book is not just about data displays, it is about the history of good data displays. A fact that is not conveyed by the book’s title, so that I was at first led to expect something slightly different.

Yet, I can wholeheartedly recommend this little practical guide. Wainer’s style is witty, entertaining, and instructive. The book is nicely typeset, a feature it shares with the works of Tufte. And finally, by providing a genesis of effective data displays the book certainly can teach more than by just providing examples of good and bad graphical illustrations. It shapes the way one might think about the data, and it reminds the reader that the same data can and has to be presented in different ways to address different specific problems.

This third novel by Marshall Jevons, that is the economists William Breit and Kenneth G. Elzinga, is the book that actually got me hooked to this series. This was the book that was recommended to me last year. Yet, since I like to read a series of books in their order I read Murder at the Margin and Fatal Equilibrium first. There was no need to do so. The three books are independent and to read and enjoy any one of them does not require the knowledge of any of the other two.

A Deadly Indifference is in my opinion the best of the three novels. The story is tantalizing, well written and structured. The authors first build up the background, introduce all protagonists, and than already well into the novel describe a truly shocking event: the unveiling of a murder. Though the culprit is rather nicely identified by the application of economic principles the mystery is not over yet as there is another twist.

The description of economic principles that is intertwined in all thee Jevons’ novels seems here less blunt – and it was never really blunt to start with in the other two novels – and seems more easy to follow, more easy to connect to what is actually happening, and more credible.

If you want to read any of the economic detective / mystery novels start with this one. It is a pity that we cannot expect a fourth installment.

The Black Swan has to be discussed on two different levels. The first is its topic, the impact of the highly improbable, our failure to recognize the importance of rare events, our belief in exact scientific predictions. The second is Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s rhetoric.

Taleb’s style is very entertaining. Unless your are an (financial) economist, statistician or social scientist. Taleb shows very little sympathy for researcher in these fields, up to the point where his rhetoric becomes almost insulting. His criticism is mostly justified. His language not. Thus it is no surprise that it is Taleb and not his work per se that is attacked by those who are affected.

Unfortunately, his rhetoric impedes the necessary impact on the profession. If you feel being under attack your are not likely to embrace the critical message.

Unfortunately for the profession, Taleb is right. His point being most dramatically proven just shortly after his book hit the shelves.

So, the remaining question is: how do we identify real world phenomena where we cannot rely on past experience? Where we do not have something like a random walk but rather have to expect to be confronted with an occasional random jump? That we live in world of many extremes is already nicely illustrated in the book. Yet, not everything is extreme and as Taleb explains himself where to expect extreme events is often rather hard to identify. So, it is no wonder that we are prone to what Taleb calls the ludic fallacy.

I appreciate that he does not offer a simple (and wrong) solution, that he does not try give an universal answer, that he just points us to a problem we should be aware of so that every once in a while we are not too painfully surprised.

Maybe two or three years ago I already read “Style - Toward Clarity and Grace” which is a version of Style for a more general audience based on an older textbook edition. By now I have read quite a few (text)books on writing, especially on writing in economics; it is, at the end of the day, how I earn my living. So I should put some effort in it. Reading the 9th edition of the textbook is, however, not really an effort. It is quite enjoyable. The reason, of course, is that Williams put quite some effort into writing and over the years constantly revising it.

Unfortunately, just reading the book is not enough. Williams himself gives a nice metaphor explaining why: Knowing all the ingredients does not make you a good cook. And, I have to admit I did not do the exercises.

Nevertheless, I think I learned at lot from his advise. I noticed how my personal style and approach of revising my texts changed since I left school, since I finished my studies, and since I first read Style. I wish there was something similar in content and style for my native tongue. And that it would be taught at school and first year courses at universities – for both languages.

An interesting and important part of the later Style editions is a chapter on the ethics of style. How we can be fooled by an author’s rhetoric. How we can see through such attempts.